Just one day after the National Transportation Safety Board publicly called for sweeping changes, aviation safety experts are closely watching how the Federal Aviation Administration will respond to growing concerns over a string of dangerous runway overruns on wet and contaminated surfaces. The NTSB’s fresh recommendations highlight a troubling pattern: pilots and airlines are operating with incomplete information about how much braking power they actually have when rain intensifies, often leading to aircraft sliding off the end of runways despite following existing procedures.
Investigators examined 11 separate runway overrun accidents and incidents between 2008 and 2022, all occurring during landings on wet runways. In multiple cases, the aircraft required significantly more runway to stop than what crews had calculated based on the current FAA Runway Condition Assessment Matrix, or RCAM. The existing system, which relies on a six-point scale and often subjective observations, fails to fully capture how braking friction deteriorates as rainfall grows heavier. Grooved runways that perform adequately in light rain can lose effectiveness rapidly under heavier downpours, yet the reporting protocols do not adequately reflect this progressive degradation.
The heart of the problem lies in the gap between reported runway conditions and actual aircraft performance. Current matrices lean heavily on pilot reports and standardized coefficients that do not account for varying moisture levels across different pavement types. This shortfall becomes especially critical during approach planning, where crews determine landing distances, target speeds, and whether to continue an approach or execute a go-around. At busy airports, operational pressures can push crews to land even when conditions sit on the edge of safety margins. The result has been repeated excursions that damage aircraft, injure passengers and crew, and in some tragic instances, claim lives.
The NTSB is now pressing the FAA to modernize the RCAM by incorporating real-time friction measurements, better rainfall intensity descriptors beyond the current “heavy rain” threshold of 0.3 inches per hour, and quantified degradation factors tied directly to braking performance. Such updates would give flight crews clearer, more precise data for risk assessment well before touchdown. The Safety Board also wants expanded weather reporting standards so pilots receive earlier warnings when conditions could push friction coefficients well below what the current matrix assumes.
For airlines and airport operators, the stakes are high. A more accurate matrix would not only improve safety but could reduce the costly disruptions that follow overruns. However, implementation will require close coordination between the FAA, airports with differing runway surfaces, and aircraft manufacturers to ensure consistent standards across the National Airspace System. Questions remain about compliance timelines, potential retrofits, and how quickly new guidance can filter down to daily operations. As of today, the FAA has not yet issued a detailed response or timeline for action on these specific recommendations.
Aviation safety advocates view this moment as an opportunity to close a long-standing vulnerability in wet-runway operations. While technology like onboard braking performance monitoring continues to advance, many believe updating the foundational assessment tools is an essential and overdue step. Until stronger measures are in place, crews will continue landing on runways where the margin between a safe stop and a dangerous overrun remains thinner than pilots realize--especially when the rain begins to fall harder. The coming weeks will reveal whether the FAA moves swiftly to strengthen these critical safety nets.